Dmitry Tymchuk’s Military Blog: Summary – May 20, 2014

Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

 

The bad news:

1. In Luhansk and Donetsk Regions, separatists captured eleven district election commissions [DEC], there is still a threat of the seizure of eight more.

According to our current Ukrainian legislation, the elections will be valid without a number of polling stations in Donbass. But why should some criminal bandits deny [Ukrainian] citizens the opportunity to make their political choice under normal circumstances?

We want to still believe that Ukrainian special forces will do everything in their power to maximally allow for the work of the election commissions. After all, it’s the state’s responsibility to ensure the realization of the constitutional rights of its citizens.

2. In the Vekhovna Rada [Ukrainian Parliament], the Party of Regions and the Communists thwarted the vote for the criminalization of bribing voters. Those who bribe the electorate, it was proposed, are to receive punishment of a prison term for up to three years.

As expected, at the mention of a prison term for these tricks, the Party of Regions members and the Communists got really nervous. These gentlemen from the past don’t want honest politics. It’s just not for them. Their brain refuses to recognize the idea of an honest life.

Something has to be decided about these brains.

3. Russia does not forego holding the “Aviadarts-2014” [military] exercises on the eve and day of the Presidential elections in Ukraine. Kiev gave Moscow 48 hours to provide an explanation regarding these exercises.

It is clear that we won’t hear a reasonable explanation. Although these exercises (participants master the combat use of missile, bomb, and cannon gun armaments against ground targets, as well as overcoming the air defense system of a simulated enemy) are in fact, the action script of the Russian Air Force in the invasion of Ukraine.

At the same time, we haven’t yet observed the withdrawal of Russian troops from the border areas. However, at least they aren’t currently hanging out in the 10-km [6-mile] border zone–which stabilizes the situation somewhat. But it’s a rather illusory détente. For real stabilization, we need a complete return of Russian troops to the places of their permanent deployment.

The good news:

1. The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine voted to adopt the “Memorandum of peace and harmony.” It calls for the de-escalation of tension in the country, full support of the Geneva agreements, and the promise of Constitutional reform.

Obviously this document is nothing more than a declaration. But in my opinion, it’s a very important step to a real dialogue. Obviously, not with terrorists–we can only speak the language of lead with them. But to a dialogue with the population of East and South–those who for some reasons don’t trust Kyiv. But, at the same time, want to live in a unified and stable Ukraine.

2. 100,000 people representing the world community supported the petition to the U.S. government to recognize Russia as a sponsor of terrorism.

If this status is de facto recognized by the West and the whole world thereafter, it will be an indisputable victory for Ukraine. Even though Russia prides itself on its current role as an actual rogue nation, nevertheless the further growth of international support for Ukraine won’t hurt.

3. Oligarch Rinat Akhmetov has finally shed his false shame and supported a unified Ukraine. In Donetsk and Luhansk Regions, he urged [employees of] his largest enterprises to hold a warning strike against violence and separatism.

We recently criticized Akhmetov for his “memoranda” with the terrorist organization “Donetsk People’s Republic.” The fellow has redeemed himself. We are glad.

There may be plenty of reasons to explain the behavior of the Donbass oligarch. Let’s not forget that a serious part of his business is in Europe–and [people] there wouldn’t understand his “cooperation” with the terrorist organization.

On the other hand, while Rinat Leonydovych is torn between the “Russian” and the normal world, his fiefdom in Donbass is slowly getting overshadowed by Kolomoyskyi. Akhmetov doesn’t need this type of sport even for free. And that’s why his participation in the competition for the title of Best-friend-of-a-unified-Ukraine is self-explanatory.

Again, it’s possible that Akhmetov considered the legitimate government to be more acceptable, while threatening to confiscate a part of [his] business, rather than the chaos and anarchy of his pro-Russian buddies. Especially since they vouched to conduct the “nationalization” of Akhmetov’s enterprises.

In the end, we do not exclude a double play by Akhmetov. But it’s not the point. If this tactical step by Akhmetov positively affects the situation in the region–why shouldn’t it be welcomed? And we’ll deal with his motives and secret desires later.

May 20, 2014 Lithuanian media roundup

On 20th of May Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted a Memorandum of Peace and Concord. It calls for the de-escalation of tension in the country, full support of the Geneva agreements and the promise of Constitutional reform. (15min.lt)

On 30th of May -1st of June the NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s spring session, with the main subject aimed at the situation in Ukraine, will take place in Lithuanian Parliament (diena.lt). Read more in Lithuania Tribune:
http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/68175/ukraine-to-dominate-nato-parliamentary-assembly-session-in-vilnius-201468175/.

On 20th of May Dmitry Medvedev, Russian Prime Minister, said that ‘Russia is being pulled into a new Cold War with the United States and its allies, who are using economic warfare reminiscent of the Soviet Union under Leonid Brezhnev‘ (vz.lt, lrytas.lt, 15min.lt). Watch more on Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/medvedev-says-second-cold-war-is-slowly-approaching-uASWH5BIQ8~muzJjTTIizw.html.

On 19th of May Miroslav Lajcak, Slovakia‘s Minister of Foreign Affairs, said that Slovakia was preparing a line for reverse natural gas supplies to Ukraine. (delfi.lt)

On 20th of May Joe Biden, United States Vice-president, during his visit to Romania said that Europe’s borders should not be changed at the point of a gun. (lrytas.lt, 15min.lt)

May 8,2014 Lithuanian media round-up

On May 8th Lithuanian Parliament adopted a resolution for faster ratification of EU association agreement with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. In this resolution members of the Lithuanian Parliament also condemned continuous  attempts of Russia to split territorial integrity of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia states through escalation of internal conflicts and provocations of separatism in order to deter these countries from independent choice of direction in political and economical integration. (Lithuanian Parliament Press Office, BNS, ELTA, 15min, The News radio, unofficial translation)

Petras Auštrevičius, Deputy Speaker of the Lithuanian Parliament and Kazys Starkevičius, member of the Lithuanian Parliament on May 10-11th will take part in meetings with the Volodomyr Lytvyn, Deputy Head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defence Policy, Ruslan Koshulynskyi, Vice-Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, members of the Group for Interparliamentary Relations with the Republic of Lithuania. Petras Auštrevičius and Kazys Starkevičius will also take part in meetings with Dmitry Tymchuk (‘Information Resistance’ group), Vitali Klitschko, Leader of the UDAR Party, Mykola Katerynchuk, Leader of the European Party of Ukraine, Ambassador Jan Tombinski, Head of the EU Delegation, Petro Poroshenko, candidate in Ukraine’s presidential elections, and Yuriy Tereshchenko, Acting Director General of ‘Ukroboronprom’. (Lithuanian Parliament Press Office, BNS, ELTA, 15min.lt)

On May 8th, initiated by Lithuania and Ukraine, informational event for OSCE delegations, dedicated to address human rights violation in Crimea took place in Vienna. Giedrius Čekuolis, Lithuania’s Ambassador to the OSCE, stressed that human rights of national minorities, especially Crimean Tatars, situation in Crimea after annexation only got worse. Mustafa Dzhemilev, Leader of Crimean Tatars, which also participated in the event as a guest, expressed his concern that ‘Crimean Tatars are threatened due to their principal position about territorial integrity of Ukraine, boycott of referendum and are called extremists by pro-russian Crimea government.’ (Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs information, ELTA, 15min.lt)

Miloš Zeman, President of the Czech Republic, and Lubomír Zaorálek, Czech Minister of Foreign Affairs, refused to attend the Victory Day reception in Russian Embassy in Prague. (delfi.lt, 15min.lt)

On May 7th Jerome Vacher, IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine, said that ‘mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will come to Ukraine at the end of June or at the beginning of July to evaluate state’s economical situation.’ (delfi.lt).

Victoria Siumar, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, in an interview to 15min.lt said that ‘Russia is preparing false referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk on Sunday and there’s a threat that Russia can try to repeat Crimean scenario and try to bring its army into Eastern Ukraine.’ (15min.lt)

Garry Kasparov, chess player and Russian opposition activist warned that ‘grievous days are coming to the world if the Head of Russia won’t be stopped.’ Garry Kasparov also thinks that Russian army isn’t so modern and powerful as Putin says (lrytas.lt). Read more in Lithuania Tribune: http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/67849/kasparov-in-vilnius-western-countries-start-to-realize-putin-will-not-stop-in-ukraine-201467849/.