Concerning the progress of ATO
Yesterday events in Mariupol revealed that actions of structure forces finally became adequate.
The heads of divisions of force structures participating in ATO demonstrate abilities to quickly react and give orders which correspond to the tactical situation.
Soldiers managed to cross the psychological barrier of using weapons, which used to arise in direct confrontations with the terrorists. (Taking into account the interests of force structures, we did not mention this problem previously, although, during ATO, it was one of the more serious ones.)
The effectiveness of the National Guard and the Internal army (especially its special-tasks squads) must be stressed. Today, it’s the only unit that does not raise any questions about its activities.
The effectiveness of volunteer units is also impressive (we mean the defence battalion “Dniepr” which was formed by volunteers from Dnepropetrovsk region and came to Mariupol on May 8th). High fighting spirit of volunteers was obvious. It also worth noting that the actions of their commanders were very professional, as they managed to quickly orientate and organize a coordination between units.
The weak link in the chain of defence against terorrists is still the law and order structures. There, the scale of sabotage and betrayal is global. This is one of the most pressing problems and for now there are no obvious solutions to it.
The situation on the border between Ukraine and Russia remains very tense. To effectively resist the entry of Russian sabotage groups and weapons to Ukrainian territory, Ukrainian border guard lacks additional human power, means and aid from other force structures. From this perspective, particularly bad situation is in the regions of Lugansk and Donetsk.
Concerning the capacities of terrorists
For at least two weeks, in terrorists units in the East, we observed mass replacement of soldiers from GRU special forces squads with mercenaries from Russia. First of all, its reserve soldiers, most of whom have served in special forces units and have experience of fighting (e.g. in Caucasus).
Recruitment of such quite professional mercenaries is carried out by the government of Russia in the whole country. According to our information, during the last three weeks, even in Khabarovsk, military recruitment centers recalled experienced reserve soldiers (who served in squads of special forces) and offered them good wages for coming to Ukraine and participating in terrorist activities. This is especially prominent in the Southern federal region of Russian Federation.
At the same time, weapons are conveyed from Russia to terrorist groups in Donbas, in a large scale.
It is also dangerous that in the background of destabilization, enterprises in Donbas are halting and unemployment is on the rise. Many local residents find the wage (100 USD per day) for participation in terrorist actions completely acceptable.
Effective Russian propaganda (exaggeration of the mythical danger of the Right Sector, spreading of stereotypes about Ukraine as a fascist country full of banderovtsy, stories about illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government, dishonoring of Ukrainian force structures and ATO as if they were “blood-thirsty suppressors of the people’s revolt”, etc.) is also an important factor in the destabilization of situation in the region. The growth of effectivity of false Russian propaganda was observed after the tragic events of May 2nd in Odessa.
As has already been mentioned, the general analysis of the situation (first of all, in Donetsk) has shown that there still remain many questions concerning local police. Sadly, its members are often saboteurs and traitors living on the goods of the nation which they betray.
These “guardians of law and order” are a serious resource for extremist forces. Further service of these traitors in the Ministry of Internal Affairs is a grave danger for the national interests. In the case of their mass dismissal, we predict them joining terrorist groups where they will continue their anti-Ukrainian actions. The only difference being the money from Moscow.