Dmitry Tymchuk’s Military Blog: Summary – 7th of May, 2014

Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine
The bad news:

1. The closer we get to May 9, the more alarming are the signals we receive of the impending activation of the pro-Russian extremists. Although they can hardly be called passive now.

What’s worse, against this backdrop Putin has begun his next game. ‘Tipping off’ separatists to postpone the referendum, his near-willingness to recognize the Presidential elections in Ukraine–it’s like the guy’s been replaced.

But the Head of the Kremlin’s lie about the alleged withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian border does not allow for delusions. No one is withdrawing troops. This means that the soothing and nearly peaceful statements by Putin–are likely a show for the most gullible.

We don’t yet understand the reasoning behind this game. But it is clear that we shouldn’t relax. Quite the contrary.

2. The geography of extremist danger keeps on growing.

Today, we have included Zaporizhya Region in the ‘red’ zone (with the threat of extremism at 5 or higher on a 10-point scale), whereas the previously assessed threat was at 4 points.

However, the threat in Kharkov region went down–it dropped from the ‘red’ to the ‘yellow’ zone. So, they cancel each other out. We will present the infographic tomorrow.

3. Today at a press conference, the head of the Anti-terrorist Center at the SBU  Vasyl Krutov announced that during the ATO, 14 Ukrainian servicemen were killed, and 66 servicemen were injured.

We have slightly different data, but it doesn’t matter. What really matters is that every day of confrontation is paid for by human lives.

These fallen guys from the special forces are Heroes. Vechnaya Pamyat (Memory eternal) for them.

The good news:

1. Today we ran a small monitoring mission to prepare the region for possible provocations on Victory Day [May 9].

The situation is better than you might expect. Not the most optimistic picture, however, in Donetsk and Luhansk only.

Especially positive are Kharkov and the southern regions (primarily Odessa and Mykolaiv, and Kherson to a lesser extent). Here, very powerful measures have been taken to counter the threat both by security forces and local authorities. (I am not talking about Dnipropetrovsk­–here the local authorities have initially shown themselves to be up to the mark.)

For example, ‘Kyiv-1’, a special police battalion formed by volunteers arrived in Odessa today. The Defense Ministry conducts activities along its chain of command–I think we will be able to report about them tomorrow.

2. The anti-terrorist operation. Today, we finally got the full information needed to complete the puzzles. We received full confirmation of our fears about the reasons for the apparent lack of effectiveness of the ATO.

Our previous claims to the leadership of the ATO and interactions between the special forces were fully justified. The positive is in the fact that we saw some serious, ongoing work from the “top” to eliminate the problem.

The main problem lies in staff. Our generals have grown used to their comfy office chairs, they are unable to make decisions and fear liability, with a panic. The good news is that there are still adequate people amongst them. Despite the delays, they are still being assigned to key positions.

I think that today, in this grim and joyless environment for Ukraine, a new generation of Ukrainian law enforcers is being born. Commanders and leaders who are ready to take responsibility, and soldiers who are ready to defend their country and its people–not in words but in deeds.

Unfortunately, this birth is payable with blood.

3. As a result of the separatist attack on the bus carrying the ‘Azov’ police battalion, the ‘Minister of Defense’ of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, Igor Kakidzyanov was captured.

Is it just me or are Donbass extremists truly idiots? Is this how they famously ‘attack’, to immediately give up their main ‘commander’? And if their ‘Defense Minister’ is such a unique individual, what should we expect from their ‘soldiers’?  What a dumb ‘army’, to be honest with you.

4. The SBU reported that in Odessa the existence of a Conversion Center was discovered that funded the riots on May 2. As expected, Yanukovych’s ‘Family’ bears responsibility for the financing.

In general, it’s not a big secret: the more the channels which finance extremists are blocked, the more chances there are to succeed in the fight against them. Without money, there will be no terror under the Russian flag. And Mr. Putin and his ilk can tightly roll up and stick their ideas of ​​’Russian World’ wherever they earlier stuck norms of international law.

Source: Dmitry Tymchuk FB

Ukrainians are refusing St. George’s Ribbon in favor of the ‘Red Poppy’

From Euromaidanpr Facebook

For the first time in Ukrainian history, during official events dedicated to the anniversary of the ending of Wold War II, this year not Russian, but European symbols will be used. In order to commemorate those fallen, not the St. George’s Ribbon, but the red poppy flower will be used. This idea and the graphic realization of it was the result of cooperation of the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory and the National TV Company of Ukraine.

‘We propose a new symbol as a presentation of our respect for those who destroyed Nazism. This will be the red poppy flower – both a European and a Ukrainian symbol. In it said in our songs that poppies bloom where Cossack blood had been spilt,’ noted the director of the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory Volodymyr Vyatrovich.

446617_20140506083858

‘The commemoration day, the day of the capitulation of Nazi Germany. The symbol has to be something notable, something that would symbolize not a holiday, which war cannot be by definition, but memory and mourning,’ added the head of the National TV Company Zurab Alasania.

The graphic representation – an allusion of a red poppy on one hand, and a bloody trace of a bullet on the other, – represents the essence of war, talks about suffering, death, heroism, about millions of dead – the most important things about war.

The logo also contains the motto ‘Never again,’ as it is in our power to prevent the repeat of the horrors of war, and the years of warfare: 1939-1945.

‘World War II was more than the Great Patriotic War. In particular, for Ukraine. For Ukraine the war began in 1939, and not in 1941,’ stated Kharkov designer, author of the logo Sergiy Mishakin.

Official events in commemoration of the ending of War World II in Europe and victory over Nazism will be conducted on May 8th and 9th. In 2014 and on, together with Europe and the entire world, Ukraine will begin the commemoration of the deceased on May 8th – on the day of the signing of the capitulation by Nazi Germany – and will continue traditional celebrations on May 9th.

In particular, it is planned to hold the symbolic event ‘First minute of peace’ on May 8th. As is known, the capitulation of Germany was signed on May 8th late in the evening. Strictly speaking the war ended on this day in Europe. Therefore this year Ukraine will widen the commemoration of the war, which should never be repeated.

We remind you that the organisation of solemn events in Ukraine on May 8th will also allow to hold a part of the celebration in unison with other countries of the anti-Hitler coalition: the UK, France, the US. And on May 9th the memory of those fallen in the fight against Nazism will be commemorated in the Park of Eternal Glory and on St. Sophia’s Square.

The Ukrainian Institute of National Memory is calling for the media and civil community to use the red poppy flower as a Ukrainian symbol of traditional celebration of victory over Nazism and the end of World War II in Europe.

foto.jpg

On the edge

Today, the fate of Ukraine is being decided in Donbas. Unable to stir the unrest in the whole Southeastern region, Kremlin decided to act gradually and take the control of smaller regions one by one.

It must be understood that the Donetsk oblast is the “pilot project” of the second stage (the first being Crimea) of Putin’s gamble with the purpose of destroying Ukraine. If Moscow manages to achieve its goals there, a similar scenario will be enacted in Lugansk and in Kharkov. And further on.

Hromadske.tv interview with soldiers in Mariupol

Hromadske.tv interview with soldiers in Mariupol

By the way, events in the South may be initiated at the same time. The base for active Russian operations already exists – it is Transnistria. It is no coincidence that 2 000 Russian soldiers were moved there in March. Half of these soldiers are members of the special forces, already dressed as “the green men”  – groups prepared to carry out sabotage acts.

While Ukraine’s attention is directed towards Donbas, the time is suitable for implementing the same plan in Odessa. Without Odessa Ukraine would loose the whole South.

Nonetheless, Southeast is not the endpoint of the scenario. While Vladimir Putin is waving his devil’s pitchfork with the name of Viktor Yanukovych, we cannot be sure that he is not intending to go for Kiev with the pretext of “reestablishing the legitimate government in Ukraine”.

This scenario can be partly hindered by the effective work of law enforcement on the four criminal cases against Yanukovych. If they would clearly show the whole world that the “legitimate president” is a thief and a murderer, it would be more difficult for Putin to use him in his puppet-play.

Still, this is only a small fragment. What is the most important is the actions involving the use of direct force. For some decades already, there exists a prevailing pacifist notion of a flower blossom placed in a gun barrel. Our government loudly declared the beginning of the anti-terrorist operation, but at the same time limited the actions of our force structures and put those flowers into their guns.

Yes, the casualties of the supposedly “peaceful residents” are unnecessary and unwelcome. Yet, what is preventing the government from declaring the state of emergency in this turbulent region? And explaining people that those who are preventing the force structures from fulfilling their duty are outside the law?

For instance, yesterday, during the assault on the military unit in Mariupol, soldiers have wounded several participating extremists. At once, the latter declared that they were simply promenading near the military compound at around midnight, and thus were accidental victims. What is the conclusion? Of course, the soldiers are bloodthirsty maniacs. The fact that within the zone of the anti-terrorist operation, someone is attacking the soldiers, taking away their guns and attacking military units, is a complete nonsense. Certainly.

In the end, it should be understood that you cannot attempt to swaddle the soldiers following the “rules of peacetime” and hope to get miraculous results. You cannot use a knife if you haven’t pulled it out of its sheath.

I am strictly against bloodshed. Yet, there are moments when one side or the other must make a decision – to defend itself or cease to exist. If we decided to become the most peaceful nation within the Great Russia, we must say so. There is no need to be modest because it is misleading.

Yet, if we do not want to be a part of Russia, we must defend ourselves. Maybe, for some it is a difficult decision. But it must have been made already yesterday.

Yes, today are all walking on the edge. On the one hand there is a danger of “provoking” Russia into an open invasion, which would mean casualties and the loss of the country. On the other hand the country would be lost without casualties.

I respect the Christian morality. But at the same time I cannot remember any example in the history of world, when an indecisive nation was declared great and worth respect.

At the same time, government decisions are not the only problem. There are many issues concerning the chosen tactics, for instance, the actions of the command of separate units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Yesterday, the whole country was astonished by the “fighting actions” carried out by the troopers. Yet, the causes of this phantasmagoria lie not in the soldiers’ torn boots, but rather in the shoulder straps of senior officers. It is these factors that have to be analyzed and eliminated immediately.

Tomorrow, it will be too late.