That old, familiar pattern: Russian invasion of Ukraine

There was common pattern for all the communist revolutions around the world.

There was common pattern for all the communist revolutions around the world.

Written by Rokiškis Rabinovičius, kindly translated from Lithuanian by Martynas Klimas

It all started from people rising up against Viktor Yanukovitch rather than any actions undertaken by Russia. Maybe this inverse was what made people miss the old Russian invasion pattern appear in Ukraine. Or was it because we were used to seeing the pattern develop from the other side?

The pattern is old, having undergone first trials about a century ago. As time went by, it was refined, well drilled into everyone’s mind, until it was finally made into a set of standard invasion plans. A whole systemic methodology of invading other countries that, when the time came, only required minor adaptations.

Talks that Vladimir Putin is waging info war like no one has done before are, at best, naïve. He is not creating anything new or revolutionary; Putin is barely taking the well drilled KGB invasion plan and adapting it to current needs. Those methods are a dead ringer to the best hits of USSR invasions.

The entire thing is usually done under the cover of standard bullshit. It all goes through several structural channels: leftist commie cells from around the world, official soviet press and through various press offices in Moscow that publish left and right, trying to pass off their bullshit as something that the locals wrote themselves. In the good old days, newspapers printed in Moscow were presented as supposedly printed somewhere else. Today, the same things goes on the Internet.

We have to pay attention to the real thing: the invasion pattern. A series of events that happen concurrently with a Bolshevik invasion. Then we see, time and time again, a same pattern emerge with only the slightest of adaptations.

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Putin’s plan for the 9th of May

Everyone understands that Russia is tired of Ukraine. Everyone understands that Russia wants to finally invade Ukraine form Slavyansk to Chop and get rid of this headache once and for all.

However Ukraine is still very successful in playing a role of an innocent victim in the eyes of the West to be able to invade without getting a label of a world aggressor and a full blockade, which is of course not very welcome despite the bravado “your sanctions are nothing to us”.

Of course the first guarantee of Ukraine’s success in the field of theatrical performance playing an innocent victim is the impotence of the readers, who are able neither to disperse a rally nor to neutralize a terrorist.

That is why the idea to show Ukrainians as evil demons, who insidiously destroy their own population, does not turn out very well.

Picture of Slavyansk as a nesting of lovely peaceful angels, who simply want self-determination and autonomy, failed completely. As it is obvious what sort of angel Ponomaryov is. Then he even grasped foreign observers in hostages and got MANPADS from somewhere, which are an extra-rare commodity and its use immediately reclassifies conflict on a completely different level for every military.

redBasically, it did not work out with Slavyansk.

That is why they decided to advance form Odessa, purchasing local police. The plan was to create a new centre of resistance in the barricaded building and if this won’t work out, then at least use the PR around killed people as an advantage. The pan B, as you can see, worked, but badly as the stupid Odessa police were too obvious in helping separatists and were giving away arms right in front of the cameras.

The fact that the Odessa police are the direct organiser of both, the attack of pro-Russian activists on ultras and their murder in the Trade Union building is making the investigation much more complicated. That is why we are unlikely to see any reports of court medical experts.

But even here, regardless of efforts of all the Kremlin’s propaganda personnel, the things don’t work out very well. Inciting hatred they have to deliberately conceal too many obvious and fixed on video facts:

– So these guys attacked first, so how are they victims now?

– So these innocent victims, before their tragic death, shot of someone else’s parade, which was walking not towards them but to a football game.

And so on. So there are victims but they are not innocent – this is a contradiction.

But innocent victims are badly needed. Because as much as Kremlin’s agitators shout “get up a great country!” – the county does not get up. It is tossing and turning, asking questions as it were ready, but still sits and grumbles and does not run to attack. The West does not want to believe that “Russia has its own truth”. Ukrainian aggression against Russia is missing. One stroke lacks only– the same, which was enough for the USA to start a war in Afghanistan in 2001.

Unfortunately we know how such stoke can be provided.

Personal offence is missing. So far for Russians all that is going on is not their problem. From the point of view of a resident of Uryupinsk: he is offered to feel for the problems of incredibly distant and foreign Ukraine and he is asked to begin to help citizens of that foreign to him Ukraine in fight against some Right Sector, which no one in Uryupinsk has heard about 3 months ago, and even now, let’s say honestly, they don’t know and don’t care much about it.

The Kremlin needs a personal offence to every Russian from Ukrainians.

The Kremlin needs that “Daddy, kill a banderite” does not cause any questions and does not demand personal explanations.

The Kremlin wants the war with the Right Sector to become a question of self-defence for every Russian.

What does it all lead to?

To the fact that Russia expects all sorts of bloody surprises by the 9th of May: namely terrorist acts in Moscow or other large cities with plenty of Yarosh’s business cards thrown around the scene.

We know that a terrorist act against their own people is a well proven recipe to mobilise the population.

After the Right Sector will prove that it is internationally dangerous and will display its animal hatred towards Russia by means of organising terrorist acts on the territory of Russia itself, no one will doubt that Ukraine must be immediately invaded. Not to protect a mythical Russian-speaking population of Ukraine, protection of which leads to more questions than answers (who protects Russian-speaking population in Kazakhstan and Latvia?), but for protecting own population, with its full and unconditional support, in the wake of the noble rage, which the boiled as a wave.

At the same time Putin will get to use his favourite “symmetric argument”: if the USA had the right to invade Afghanistan after the World Trade Centre was blown up, then why can’t we invade Ukraine after the most terrible terrorist act in the centre of Russia on the holy day of the 9th of May? Agents of Russian influence inside the USA will address their senators and will sarcastically ask: are you supporting terrorism?

As you can see there are many benefits and bonuses from a good explosion in the centre of Russia.

We recommend Russian people in Russia leave big cities during the May holidays, and especially on the 9th if May, just in case. We also do not recommend the use of underground, be in multi-storey residential buildings and on squares, take part in massive processions between 8th and 10th of May. If you do not want to become an innocent victim, of course.

If Putin hung a picture of the Right Sector in the first act of the play, then in the concluding act Yarosh will most certainly shoot. Possibly on the Red Square.

We write this probable prediction, because we hope for the maximum broadcast of this plan. We hope that publishing plans of the enemy will lead to their cancellation. The scenario described above is a catastrophe, which serves only one purpose: strengthening the position of Putin at cost of lives of the Russian people. That is why we hope that we will be able to influence it somehow by broadcasting it in advance. Please spread it as much as you can.