That old, familiar pattern: Russian invasion of Ukraine

There was common pattern for all the communist revolutions around the world.

There was common pattern for all the communist revolutions around the world.

Written by Rokiškis Rabinovičius, kindly translated from Lithuanian by Martynas Klimas

It all started from people rising up against Viktor Yanukovitch rather than any actions undertaken by Russia. Maybe this inverse was what made people miss the old Russian invasion pattern appear in Ukraine. Or was it because we were used to seeing the pattern develop from the other side?

The pattern is old, having undergone first trials about a century ago. As time went by, it was refined, well drilled into everyone’s mind, until it was finally made into a set of standard invasion plans. A whole systemic methodology of invading other countries that, when the time came, only required minor adaptations.

Talks that Vladimir Putin is waging info war like no one has done before are, at best, naïve. He is not creating anything new or revolutionary; Putin is barely taking the well drilled KGB invasion plan and adapting it to current needs. Those methods are a dead ringer to the best hits of USSR invasions.

The entire thing is usually done under the cover of standard bullshit. It all goes through several structural channels: leftist commie cells from around the world, official soviet press and through various press offices in Moscow that publish left and right, trying to pass off their bullshit as something that the locals wrote themselves. In the good old days, newspapers printed in Moscow were presented as supposedly printed somewhere else. Today, the same things goes on the Internet.

We have to pay attention to the real thing: the invasion pattern. A series of events that happen concurrently with a Bolshevik invasion. Then we see, time and time again, a same pattern emerge with only the slightest of adaptations.

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Gabrielius Landsbergis: Russia must be stopped by force

Gabrielius Landsbergis

Gabrielius Landsbergis

Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania

In the 2nd century B.C. Cato the Elder, veteran of the Punic Wars, was aware of the rapidly rising Carthage and was trying to convince other romans to do the ultimate trip to Africa.

To emphasize the importance of defeating Carthage, Cato used the phrase “Carthago delenda est” (English: “Carthage must be destroyed”) to finish most of his speeches.

Maybe it is not be absolutely correct to use this phase straightforwardly for today’s situation but based on the idea of the Roman senator, I declare that Russia must be defeated – stopped by force because it is not going to stop and its aggression is going to continue.

Politicians and analysts are discussing about possible scenarios of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Both scenarios, one where Russia falls back and starts negotiations, or the one where part of Eastern Ukraine will be annexed by Russia, are essentially the same. Russia’s history and its imperial logic dictates one thing – Russia’s expansion goes on until it is stopped by some natural barriers or geopolitical forces. Russia was always focused on expansion, e.g. the Second partition of Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, Stalin’s plans to march to Pyrenees, etc.

Current government in Russia, that considers the collapse of Soviet Union as a geopolitical catastrophe, is thinking about Russia in the same way – Russia must expand its territory. In the Western world we were to believe that after Cold War history of this kind is over. Unfortunately, occupation of parts of Georgia in 2008, was a cold shower for this belief. And those that were not convinced that Russia has serious plans to expand its territory, annexation of Crimea was a crystal clear proof that they were wrong.

Illusion of the End of History and Last Man by Francis Fukuyama was offering an opinion that the era of the conventional war is over – there will be no more territorial attacks, no front lines, declarations of war, ceasefires, and defeats. The end of the Cold War created an interesting situation where the winner was obvious – there were no doubts that USA was the winner, but there were no loser declared. Modern world, guided by the dogmatic idealism, decided that it is not fair to humiliate the loser, it would be wrong to force him to sign the act of peace treaty, or to force to recognize its criminal past and crimes against humanity.

This was a paradoxical situation in which the loser was not a loser. The closest comparison would be with Germany after WWI. This Germany was humiliated but it was not defeated. It was the key which let Hitler to spread the revenge ideology: Germany was never defeated, because such great force as Kaiser Germany cannot be defeated, and only temporal weakness was the reason for the humiliation. Isn’t it the same basic idea behind Putin’s claims on Yeltsin’s government? Yeltsin was weak therefore the mighty Russia was humiliated and had the economic chaos, etc. There are way more similarities between nazi Germany and Putin’s Russia.

There is a good reason why winners of WWII in 1945 didn’t want to take risks – all Germany was divided into 4 parts. Its capital Berlin was also divided into 4 parts. USA, Great Britain, and France didn’t want any compromises – total disarmament, Nuremberg trials, and division of the country were executed to make sure that there will be no debates on who have won the war. And only when winners decide that Germany is ready, the sovereignty will be returned.

I had a neighbor whose father was nazi soldier and after the war was sent to prison. Today this man is one of many german seniors living in Southern Germany. My neighbor told me that talking about his father is very painful because it forces to feel the shame and guilt. The man also said that it is hard for him to understand motives behind German citizens that were following Hitlers, and therefore killed millions. Nowadays, Germans are very peaceful, therefore completely different from Germans that were cheering Hitler in 1938.

Can we expect such a story from a russian person, when 50% of russians are supporting sending troops not only to Ukraine but also to Baltic states? In my opinion, “soft measures” taken against Russia will only give the feeling for russian people that someone is not completely fair with them. A common russian person who is strongly affected by governmental propaganda has an idea that Russia  was only giving a helping hand for Russian speaking people in Crimea, and was punished without a reason. He thinks that Russia needs to defend itself and to prove that Russia is strong and Western countries need to show some respect.

Unfortunately, history is still here and it’s not going anywhere. This is an era of realpolitik and geopolitics. Therefore, Russia must be defeated, otherwise it is not going to stop itself. If it is not stopped in Crimea, then it must be stopped in Eastern Ukraine or Transnistria, or Baltic states, or Poland, or… Sooner or later Russia will be forced to recognize the defeat and to face the reality. Defeat for Russia is going to be extremely painful – loss of territories, trials for the elite, confiscation of property, maybe even the collapse of the whole country. But only then we’ll be able to talk about the real Russian Spring.

Russia must be stopped for its own good. If Cato’s call seems too old, we can remember George Kennan. His policy on Russia finally was accepted as the right one. He was stating that “soviet force has no concrete plans and it takes no risks. It is not using arguments but it obeys logic of power. Due to this reason it falls back and frequently does it when faces serious resistance.” Now we, the Western world, need to follow Kennan idea, we need to enforce an effective strategy against Russia that would lead to the essential renewal of its mindset.


Scaring the residents of East Ukraine

Journalists of Donetsk have collected various rumours that are spread amid the participants of pro-Russian demonstrations. All of these rumors have been heard from the protesters. Some of them remind of wild delusions but this is no joke – the fear of war and informational vacuum create a perfect environment for even the most unlikely fantasies. The fear is the main factor igniting the separatist activities. And the stupider the reason for fear, the greater the fear becomes (and the shouts asking for Putin’s help get louder).

By the way, some 25 years ago, many similar rumours could be heard in Lithuania. This happened during the years of the struggle for Lithuanian Independence from the Soviet Union. Many of them were spread purposefully by the members of the Communist Party, KGB and Yedinstvo. It was difficult to quash these rumours and those residents who were doubting the need for Independence tended to believe them.

People panic when they listen to various rumors

People panic when they listen to various rumours

Therefore, please, enjoy the creations of political technologists and the common people. They could cause uncontrollable laughter, but in this case, they cause uncontrollable fear, spark very real protests and lead to even more real casualties. Here is the whole list:

  1. Yatsenyuk said that everyone who doesn’t speak Ukrainian will be forced to leave the country.
  2. The Americans are staging a war in Ukraine. Genetically modified soldiers will be used (the story was told to a journalist at a hairdresser’s).
  3. It was neither the border guards nor the army that came to Donbas (Donetsk province). No, it was the dressed units of the Right Sector and Banderists who will begin the massacre of local Russians there. Thus, the Ukrainian army movement must be blocked.
  4. Ukrainian soldiers who came to the Donetsk province beat everyone, who speaks with them in Russian.
  5. In a particular factory (of course, different names are given of the factories were the storytellers themselves are not working), the workers are forced to transfer part of their salary to Maidan and pay for the maintenance of the Right Sector.
  6. Banderists will cancel allowance for raising children.
  7. Banderists have already been seen in the station of Donetsk. They were asking for directions to get to the Lenin square, where the tents of separatists are set up. Those who did not answer in Ukrainian, were violently beaten.
  8. The children will be sold as slaves in Europe.
  9. There is no more insulin in Donetsk province. This means that people with diabetes will die.
  10. In Donbas, the mines will be flooded. Afterwards, nuclear waste from the US and Europe will be kept there.
  11. Poisoned products from the US and Europe will be brought to Ukraine (this may be a modification of rumors concerning GMOs).
  12. Gays, pedophiles and zoophiles will take over the government and will introduce forced marriages according to their worldview.
  13. Public sector workers will be stripped of all the bonuses, thirteenth monthly pays and all premiums. That is, only the simple salary will remain.
  14. In Druzhkivka (Donetsk province), the mayor himself was telling people that in the case of him being removed, there will be no thirteenth monthly pay for public sector workers.
  15. Soon a complete mobilization will begin and people who will be recruited will loose their jobs and salaries.
  16. Banderists are unemploying everybody who speaks Russian.
  17. Drug addicts are joining the army. Also, when people are taken to the army, drugs are put into their tea so that they would sign all the required papers.
  18. The celebrations of the First of May and the Ninth of May will be canceled.

We would like to repeat. This is not a joke. These are the real fears of the residents in Donbas. That is why people are demonstrating and asking for Putin’s help.

Based on the material by the Ukrainian “Informational Shield”.